Crude Oil Price Trends: A Study by OPEC+

Governments, businesses, and consumers worldwide closely monitor crude oil prices due to their significant impact on the global economy. In February 2024, various factors, including demand and supply dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and economic outlooks, influenced the movement of crude oil prices. Here’s a comprehensive look at how these changing dynamics would impact the crude oil sector as a whole.

Crude Oil Price Trends in February 2024

• ORB and Futures Prices: The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $1.19 to an average of $81.23/b, and oil futures prices, including ICE Brent price and NYMEX WTI price contracts, also experienced increases.
• Market Structures: The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed, indicating changes in market dynamics and investor sentiment.

Crude Oil Demand and Supply 

Global oil demand growth is expected to remain steady at 2.2 mb/d in 2024, while slight downward revisions for OECD Asia Pacific would be experienced in Japan and South Korea due to weaker performance. However, upward adjustments for India and Other Asia would offset this decline. Non-OECD demand is forecasted to increase by 2.0 mb/d. Meanwhile, the production of non-OPEC liquids is anticipated to grow by 1.1 mb/d, mainly driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Norway, with that of OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids also projected to increase.

Impact of the Changing Crude Oil Dynamics On Southeast Asian Gasoline Market 

Southeast Asian gasoline 92 crack posted solid gains, driven by regional demand from India and China. Asian naphtha crack spreads experienced losses due to increased supplies from the Middle East.

Preliminary Data on Crude Oil Imports

• United States: In February, the U.S. imported about 6.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, which was a bit higher compared to the previous month. However, the amount of crude oil the U.S. exported remained stable at around 4.6 million barrels per day.

• China: In January, China’s crude oil imports were around 11.2 million barrels per day, which was slightly lower compared to the previous month.

• India: India saw an increase in crude oil imports in January, reaching about 5.1 million barrels per day. This increase was partly due to seasonal trends.

• Japan: Japan experienced a decrease in crude oil imports in January, with imports standing at about 2.4 million barrels per day.

• OECD Europe: Crude oil imports into OECD Europe increased in December before decreasing in January and February 2024.

OFB’s Insight on the Future of Crude Oil Market

Oil futures prices consolidated gains, supported by optimism surrounding global economic growth and tightening market fundamentals. Estimates of the future suggest positive trends in economic growth and oil demand, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. Transportation fuels are expected to drive oil demand growth in the Asia Pacific region, supported by increasing transportation and air travel activities.

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